We aren’t quite in the final stretch of the 2026 season, but it is approaching the time when we begin to look at the run-in. Especially after coming in as champions and therefore some high expectations, most wrote off Liverpool this season after their Autumnal stumble. But after a dominant 4-1 victory over Newcastle and with Arsenal appearing less convincing about storming off, it begs the question about what is possible over the next 14 games, which is still over a third of the season. The outright odds of Liverpool’s title hopes are currently 150/1, while a top 4 finish is positioned as a 50/50, with a general sense of optimism after the Villa and City results this weekend.
Consistency and rivals
For Liverpool to mount a realistic title charge and close the 14-point gap with Arsenal, they must address the lack of consistency that defined their winter period. Before the Newcastle win, the team had a string of draws against Arsenal, Burnley, and Leeds, and a loss to Bournemouth. This has put Arne Slot and everything he says under a microscope.
The other contenders, like Arsenal and City, haven’t been entirely convincing – they also share many stumbles against weaker teams. What’s more concerning, perhaps, is the loss to City, as these are the chances to make a 6-point difference.
The Run-In
The final months of the season have a few of these six-pointers, and these will be where Liverpool cannot settle for draws. It’s City at home on Sunday – this will be where title hopes are over with anything other than 3 points. Assuming a win, we can look at the odds according to this website and other analyses for a deeper look into the run-in.
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) – 15 March: Spurs are currently struggling in 14th place. Prediction: Liverpool are heavy favourites at Anfield given their historical home dominance against a Spurs side lacking form this season.
- Everton (A) – 18 April: The Merseyside Derby at Goodison is always fierce. Everton are in better form than recent years (9th), fighting for a European spot. Prediction: Expect a low-scoring, high-tension draw as both teams want to avoid losing.
- Manchester United (A) – 2 May: Two points separates these rivals, and if the title run is over, this will be a huge fixture in the battle for European football. Prediction: This away trip will be the biggest game of the season for Liverpool, meaning a win is likely required, especially with the tricky remaining two games.
- Chelsea (H) – 9 May: Chelsea is in 5th place with 40 points. Prediction: A Liverpool win at Anfield leapfrogs the Londoners at the very end of the season.
- Aston Villa (A) – 17 May: Facing a Villa side that has enjoyed an 8-match winning streak earlier this season will be a brutal penultimate hurdle. Prediction: If there’s no chance of winning the title and a draw suffices for top 4, this could very well result in both teams taking a draw.
Squad depth
Despite the inconsistent results, a handful of individuals have kept Liverpool from a total collapse. Ekitike has been the standout attacker with 10 Prem goals (15 total), proving absolutely vital given the Isak injury. Wirtz is slowly coming good with more goal involvements, while Dominik Szoboszlai’s goals and assists have come in all the right moments. And, as usual, Alisson Becker’s 9 clean sheets have been a silver lining to the otherwise mounting injury crisis in defence and elsewhere. Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are out for the season, and Isak is almost the same, but could be back over spring.
Still being in the FA Cup and Champions League is huge for the club, because Anfield is a difficult place to come in cup competitions. It could be the reinvigoration that the squad needs, but it also poses problems for fitness and rotation. Title hopes look slim with the tricky run-in, while top four will come down to a handful of 6-pointers.
