Liverpool need 77 points to qualify for next seasons champions league, that’s not my words, a “super computer” has taken the rest of the fixtures of all the top 6 teams and worked out all the possible results and the team to get 77 points will 100% qualify for the Champions League. With 76 points, you’re 94% chance of getting it. Last season, Man City got 4th with 66 points!
Liverpool, right now have 52 points.
That means we have 11 games to get 25 points (a little over 2 points a game).
After Burnley this weekend, we play Man City on the 19th March, then it’s the Merseyside derby on the 1st April. After that we play all mid table teams, until Middlesbrough come to Anfield on the last game of the season (already relegated Middlesbrough at that). Unless Hull or Sunderland have a unlikely winnable run, and Bournemouth don’t self implode, we will be playing teams in April and May who are looking forward to their summer holidays.
Bearing that in mind, let’s see how Liverpool can kick this “can’t beat the lower 13 teams in the league tag and get CL football next season”.
They need 25 points.
Say Burnley is 3 points this weekend, that leaves 22 to get.
For the Man City and Everton games you would like to think 4 points will come from these, 2 is a chance, 3 more than likely, 6, would be dream land!
I’ve predicted 4, so add to the other 3 points from Burnley, that’s 7 and a total of 60 points.
17 to go from 8 games.
The rest of April is made up of:
- Bournemouth (home)
- Stoke (away)
- West Brom (away)
I have predicted 7 from these three games, which will make 67 and only 10 points needed from the final FIVE games.
May brings:
- Palace (home)
- Watford (away)
- Southampton (home)
- West Ham (away)
Then on the final game of the season is Middlesbrough.
I’ve worked out that wins will be against Palace, West Ham and Middlesbrough with a loss at Watford and a draw against Southampton.
That’s the 10 points needed.
Of course, these points could happen in any order, but I just wanted to show you how easily 77 points can be achieved.
For those who comment below saying, “will 77 be enough?”, have a Google and check out the last 4 seasons and work out the average points 4th place gets……
Who do I think get top 4?? Chelsea (obviously), Man City, Spurs and then us with Man Utd and Arsenal to miss out.
What do you think??
Pretty sure 52+7=59 and not 60. But either way I’d be very surprised if 77 points was what we needed to get 4th. I’d say 70-75 is a lot more likely.
We shud win all the games thts left and see where we are coz arsenal and man’utd have each a game in hand…
I don’t know it doesn’t look that easy to me. We struggle against the weaker teams, remember?
good article. it’s very very tough. Us and Arsenal are inconsistent, Utd are cruising with something like 2.4 ppg which would see them cruise into top 4 (I think they have their name on the EL trophy too, much weaker than last year’s comp annoyingly).
For us 25 out of 33 is a big ask. We’re much more likely to hit our season average of 2pts from 3 (that’s held up both vs top 6 and vs the other 14 teams) which is 22pts but you never know, the others may not maintain their consistency either. History says Arsenal will though!
For what it’s worth I think we miss out, however likely and possible the points look. We can’t ignore our inconsistency and our issues with parked buses and counter attack goals conceded. They are real problems and our A game really only works against the top 6.
It will be disappointing and of course the narrative will be that we were better off sticking with Rodgers who gave us a title challenge in his second season!