Carvalho to Liverpool Years in the Making

Fabio Carvalho’s first two years since moving to Anfield has been topsy turvy. Full of highs and lows. From netting a winner against Newcastle United to scoring against Manchester City.

Then there was exile from the first team, the unsuccessful loan spell at RB Leipzig, and his current redemption arc at Hull City.

Still only 21-years-old, Liverpool will not have given up on Carvalho just yet. The club have had him on their radar for almost a decade. Back when he was 11-years-old, Liverpool even took him on a tour of the club’s academy, and were keen to bring him to Kirkby. However, in the end, Carvalho opted for Fulham, only to join Liverpool eight years later.

During his time at Fulham, Liverpool kept a close eye on him, and he is still very highly rated by Michael Edwards, who played a role in bringing him to the club back in 2022.

Carvalho at Hull City

Carvalho has now played 14 matches in the Championship. He scored in just his second match for Hull City. But it has taken him a while to really get going and gain some match sharpness – understandably so – given he had gone almost a year without regular football.

Now though he is back to his best form and has six goals in his last eight matches. Meaning he has 7 in 14 games in total.

Playing in an exciting attacking side under Liam Rosenior, Carvalho has the freedom to play in the spaces between the opposition’s midfield and defence, and he is thriving.

He plays in a sort of number ten role, which is where he has always thrived for Fulham as well when he was playing in the Championship a couple of seasons ago.

What Does the Future Hold?

This loan spell for Carvalho was about getting him back to full match sharpness and giving him the confidence he needed.

He’s gotten both so far, but he will be determined to make the next step in his career in the summer.

That next step could still be made at Liverpool. As stated above he is highly rated by the club. On top of that there is also a new manager coming in, which means Carvalho should be given another chance.

Especially, if that manager is Ruben Amorim.

Why Ruben Amorim Could be the Perfect Fit for Carvalho

There’s the Portuguese connection first of all. Carvalho is a fluent Portuguese speaker which could help his chances with Amorim.

Sporting CP were also one of the clubs who were interested in taking Carvalho on loan from Liverpool last summer. So clearly, there is admiration there already from Amorim.

However, one of the biggest factors why Amorim could be the perfect fit for Carvalho is because of the Portuguese manager’s system.

Throughout his career so far, Amorim has stringently stuck to the 3-4-3 system as his core formation.

This is a system that would suit Carvalho a lot better than Klopp’s current 4-3-3 formation, where he didn’t quite fit the profile of a winger, but neither was he capable of playing in midfield, nor physically strong enough to play as a false nine.

Where Carvalho Would Play Under Amorim

Carvalho’s best role is as a number ten. That is where he has enjoyed the most joy in his career so far. Particularly, coming in from the left side.

In Amorim’s system this role is primarily reserved for Pedro Goncalves, who has a similar profile to Carvalho.

Goncalves’ role at Sporting is classified as a left attacking midfield playing behind Viktor Gyokeres as the left-sided player in the front three. But unlike in Klopp’s system where the wingers push forward to play as forwards, in Amorim’s system – the wingers play more like attacking midfielders – cutting into central areas and playing in front of the opposition’s box.

This is Goncalves’ heatmap for Sporting CP this season. You can see that rather than staying on the flank, he often drops into more central areas, which is exactly what Carvalho likes to do as well.

Carvalho’s Strengths

Carvalho is a really gifted technical player. He is is also very intelligent at finding and exploiting pockets of space in the opposition’s final third.

His off the ball movement and positioning is something that makes him stand-out from the rest and often puts him into goal-scoring situations.

Arriving in the box, Carvalho is a clinical player. Among his positional peers in the Championship this season, Carvalho has the second best conversion rate (21.73%).

Meanwhile, he ranks in fifth place for shots on target (43.48%).

Primarily, Carvalho has always been an attacking midfielder who scores goals. In his last season in the Championship before joining Liverpool only Viktor Gyokeres and Aleksandar Mitrovic (two forward players) averaged more touches in the opposition’s box per 90 than Carvalho (5.07).

Measuring Carvalho up against Goncalves. This season in Portugal’s top flight, only Viktor Gyokeres has averaged more touches in the opposition’s box for Sporting than Goncalves (4.32).

So the similarities are there with Goncalves and Carvalho. Both are players who like to arrive in the box and make a difference in the final third.

You can see in the shot-map below, just like Goncalves, Carvalho has thrived in central areas for Hull City this season – which means he would profile really well in Amorim’s 3-4-3 system.

Carvalho’s Last Dance

Of course everything hinges on Amorim being appointed as Liverpool’s next manager. But if it is the Portuguese who arrives at Anfield, Carvalho should be given another chance to revive his Liverpool career.

People still rate him highly in the club, and he has aspirations to win the Ballon d’Or one day.

There is no better club for him to pursue that ambition than Liverpool. And there could be no better manager to help him fulfil that ambition than Amorim.

This summer could very well be Carvalho’s last hurrah.