‘Salah is still going strong’ – Inevitable On The Horizon

Nothing lasts forever. The only absolute in life is that everything must come to an end. Jurgen Klopp’s departure from Liverpool was an acute reminder of that. For almost nine years Liverpool fans have had the pleasure of indulging in an exciting team full of the best players in world football.

But the squad which Klopp built is slowly dismantling. Only Mohamed Salah remains at Anfield from Klopp’s original attacking trio that also included Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane.

Salah is still going strong. Despite a blip in form towards the end of last season, he finished the campaign as the club’s top-scorer. Liverpool will not entertain any notions of letting him go this summer. However, at 32 years old with just one year left on his contract the question must be asked: for how long can Liverpool hold that stance?

What Liverpool Need to Replace Salah

It’s a very big footballing cliche, but the truth is there will never be anyone like Salah ever again. Football players are not some factory creations, they are human beings. Fallible just like the rest of us. They have no carbon-copy or a direct replacement.

Liverpool’s Salah heir will be different from the Egyptian. But Edwards and the recruitment team’s job will be to make sure he at least has a semblance of the same quality to Liverpool’s Egyptian King.

Primarily, Edwards will be searching for output.

If we take a look at right-wingers with at least a £10m market valuation in the world’s senior football leagues who played at least 1000 minutes, no one averaged a higher xG per 90 than Mohamed Salah last season as per Wyscout.

Salah’s 0.70 xG per 90 is in a league of his own. He’s simply very good at getting himself in goal-scoring positions time and time again. He also takes on a high volume of shots. Out of right-wingers no one averaged more shots (3.53 per 90) in the world’s senior leagues last season.

And out of the right-wingers who averaged at least three shots per 90 no one had a better goal-conversion rate (19.25%) than the Liverpool winger either.

So, this would suggest Salah is an excellent finisher, and someone who puts himself in goal-scoring opportunities frequently in every match. But to be honest, I probably don’t need to tell you that. Liverpool fans will be well aware of his quality already.

But over the last season or so Salah’s game has changed. He’s been much more than just a finisher for Liverpool.

In fact, last season he averaged 0.42 xA per 90 – the highest out of any Liverpool player.

During the 2023/24 campaign, Salah became more of a creator. He increased his xA per 90 from Liverpool’s title winning campaign by 0.17 per 90, with Salah averaging only 0.25 xA per 90 back in the 2019/20 campaign.

There is a case to be made that Salah became more unselfish without that being detriment to his goal-scoring, amassing the his highest personal xG per 90 in a single season.

Back in the 2019/20 season, Salah made just 1.78 passes into the opposition’s penalty area per 90. Last season he made 2.41 per 90. He also increased his key passes from 1.88 to 2.34 per 90.

But while his output has improved having entered his thirties some areas of his game have regressed. Most notably, his dribbling.

During the height of his powers in Liverpool’s title winning campaign in 2019/20, Salah completed 60.2% of his take-ons. In the last two season, his success rate has dropped below 40%, last season it was as low as 35.1%.

There is no denying that while Salah has continued to attempt around the same volume of dribbles every season, his effectiveness has dropped massively in this area. This is one particular attribute where Liverpool’s replacement could be an upgrade on the Egyptian. Although, the more important goal-scoring and goal-creation numbers will be difficult to replicate.

Salah’s Ideal Replacement Emerged at Euro 2024

This might be wishful thinking on my part, but I do think there is scope for Liverpool to make a move for Arda Guler in the future.

I first wrote about Guler for Liverpool.com well over two years ago now when he was still coming through the ranks at Fenerbahce. Ever since then, I’ve been a huge fan of him.

Given Real Madrid have just added Kylian Mbappe and Endrick to the club’s attacking options with Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham already there – I think in the coming years despite his talent Guler will struggle to get regular game time – a bit similarly to Martin Odegaard.

If that turns out to be the case, then just like Arsenal brought Odegaard to the Premier League, Liverpool should attempt to do the same with Guler.

The Turkish international isn’t necessarily the explosive right-winger – but he’s special.

Last season he averaged 0.92 goals per 90 minutes for Real Madrid in all competitions – albeit it was a very short sample size due to Guler missing much of the campaign through injury.

Nonetheless, at just 19 years old, he is a very impressive player – capable of the sublime – as he has shown that at Euro 2024 this summer.

Guler is energetic, and he’s so easy for the eye on the ball. He makes one vs one situations seem like a breeze in the park.

Last season, he averaged 5.85 dribbles per 90 for Real Madrid in all competitions and completed a whopping 62.5% of his attempts. That’s close to double of Salah’s completion rate for Liverpool last season, while also attempt almost double of the Egyptian’s dribble attempts per 90.

Guler thrives in tight spaces and he’s very good at weaving his way past not just one but two or three defenders.

He’s not a traditional winger, but that’s where he has played most of his minutes for Real Madrid and I think he could be suited to play a similar role for Liverpool.

With stronger side being his left foot, he could very much cut in from the right to deliver crosses and shots into the opposition’s penalty area.

Guler is a great finisher, who has an excellent shot from distance. So far in just under 4000 minutes of data that Wyscout has access to Guler has over performed his xG by double.

His career xG is just 0.23 per 90, but Guler has averaged 0.46 goals per 90 in his career. This is because the teenager often takes riskier shots from distance – although given his ability those shots often end-up worth the risk.

His last 75 shots for club and country will give you an excellent impression of what he does best and where his shots are coming from.

In the years to come, it will be important for Guler to learn when to take a shot on and when not to attempt long-range efforts. As his shot-map indicates he has much more chances of getting his shot on target when he gets closer to goal.

At Liverpool, ideally those would be the positions where he would pick the ball up as a right-winger.

And when he’s not taking on shots, it’s important to mention that he is a creative asset as well. In his career so far, he has averaged 0.33 xA per 90 and 3.9 passes into the opposition’s penalty area. That’s around very similar to the impressive creative numbers Salah posted last season with the Liverpool winger averaging 0.30 xA per 90 in all competitions last season.

Guler is a real gem, and someone who has the ability to be world-class. It remains to be seen whether Real Madrid can harness his quality or find a way to find him into their super XI.

If for some reason they can’t then I can see Liverpool making a move for him next summer. He’s someone who, if given the freedom to roam in Slot’s free flowing attacking system, could be a sensation for Liverpool – in very much the same way as Salah has been a sensation for years and years.