Who doesn’t like placing a cheeky bet on the football? The beautiful game is hard to predict, but when our beloved Reds are on the pitch, things can be a lot simpler than they seem. At least, from a statistical point of view!
It turns out betting on Liverpool isn’t as hard as you think when you focus on a few key stats. They’ll show you which betting markets are the best to look at, heightening your chances of making money while the team gets all three points.
Home Wins
You know we’re good at home, but did you know how good we are in the context of the Premier League? Here’s a hint: nobody is better than us at home!
Over the last Premier League seasons, we’re the number one team when playing at home. We had the joint most amount of home wins last year and only lost once in the entire campaign. It meant we ended the season on 48 points – the most out of anyone.
What does this mean when you want to place a bet? Usually, betting on the outcome of a match is ill-advised. You never know what can happen and a match can turn in an instant. Liverpool fans know this better than anyone; who can forget the legendary 0-3 comeback in Istanbul against AC Milan?! Having said all of that, it’s a pretty safe bet to think Liverpool will win at home in the league these days. We win close to 80% of our matches – if you’re not feeling brave enough, betting on us to win or draw is surely the safest way to guarantee a winning bet!
Over 1.5 Goals In Away Games
We love goals – and to be honest, we score more than most. I can’t think of a Liverpool team that wasn’t known for its attacking flair and desperation to score goals. Especially in recent history when you think of all the amazing attacking talent on our books. Our defensive record is reasonable too, but this doesn’t stop a large portion of our matches from containing at least two goals.
Sometimes they’re scored by us but the opposition pops in with a goal now and then. Either way, the statistics show that 92% of our games last season resulted in over 1.5 goals and 95% of away games had at least 2 goals too.
From a betting point of view, this is fantastic news when you want to bet on the total number of goals in a match. Sticking a wager on over 1.5 goals when we’re away from home is pretty much a given. 95% of our away games are ending like this, so you’ll be extremely unlucky if your bet is during one of the 5% of matches that don’t get over 1.5 goals.
Expected Goals (xG)
“Expected goals” is a relatively new statistic in the football world. You’ll find it on a lot of live scoring apps and it’s very prevalent on betting platforms. All of the UK betting sites not on GamStop reviewed by CasinoGam will include this as a statistic to help you fuel your bets.
What does it mean? It involves complex calculations and data analytics to come up with the likelihood of someone scoring a goal. The data is normally used to show how many goals a player is likely to score in a match, but more and more betting sites use xG for you to bet on the expected goals a team will score.
It’s a pretty fun metric and it helps you work out how many goals a team is likely to score in 90 minutes. For Liverpool, our xG last season was 2.08. This means we were expected to score at least two goals in every game. If you want to put a cheeky punt on our goals in a game, betting on 2 or over seems like a great shout based on the statistics.
Goals Conceded At Home
There’s a common misconception among football fans that Liverpool has a terrible defence. I don’t know where this comes from, but the stats say something entirely different. We conceded the third-lowest amount of goals in the league last year, averaging just over a goal a game.
However, when you look at our home form, we conceded 0.89 goals a match. Only Man City and Arsenal managed a lower average (both at 0.84) so this shows we hardly ever concede a goal at home. If we’re playing a team at Anfield – particularly one that doesn’t score too freely – betting on us to concede less than a goal is a brilliant way to try and win money.
You usually get great odds for a bet like this, regardless of our previous form because scoring goals in football is so easy. It can happen out of nowhere, so if you think you’re bagging a clean sheet, the bookies will reward your bravery.
2nd Half Wins
I came across some interesting stats when researching for this article and one of the most fascinating was our performances in each half of a match. When you only take the first half of a match into account, we’re 5th in the league standings. We’re winning in 14 games at halftime, drawing in 16 and losing in 8.
That’s not great, but the script is flipped when you look at our second-half performances.
We top the charts, winning a massive 25 of 38 games in the second half. This doesn’t technically mean we win all of those games; it means when you look at the second-half scores alone, we win them. With that in mind, betting on us to win the second half of a match seems like a smart way to sneak some better odds out of a game.
You can lose yourself in loads of Liverpool FC stats to help you bet on the team, but these five are the most outstanding ones. Keep an eye on them and see how they help you place more successful wagers on the Reds.
