The Orkun Kökçü Transfer Saga: Taking a Closer Look

Orkun Kökçü, the Turkish international, is at the centre of increasing transfer speculation. With rumours swirling about his potential move, the link to Liverpool is particularly intriguing, given his history with our current main man and former Feyenoord coach Arne Slot, plus Liverpool’s own recent midfield rebuild. Is this a realistic transfer possibility, or is it just another tantalising rumour to fill the international break? Let’s break down the recent reports, stats, and comparisons to figure out where this transfer might be headed.

What’s Been Said

The headline in Correio da Manhã (Saturday, 12th October 2024) screams: “Lage seduz Kökçü a ficar no Benfica”, which translates to “Lage seduces Kökçü to stay at Benfica”. Despite offers from other clubs multiplying, including from Liverpool, Bruno Lage, the Benfica coach, seems intent on keeping Kökçü in Portugal. The article cites the new manager’s arrival, alongside Kökçü’s friend Alper Aktrukoglu, as key reasons for his potential decision to stay.

The piece specifically notes: “O Liverpool já manifestou interesse no jogador de 23 anos”, which translates to “Liverpool has already shown interest in the 23-year-old player.” While this might excite Reds fans, the article points out that Kökçü is currently thriving under Lage and enjoying the best form of his career at Benfica. Even though Arne Slot—his former manager at Feyenoord—is in charge at Liverpool now, convincing Kökçü to leave might not be as straightforward as some think.

Looking at the Key Stats

Looking at Kökçü’s current season stats (2024-25), he has already made 9 appearances for Benfica, clocking 670 minutes on the pitch. As a central midfielder, he has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists, an impressive output for a deep-lying playmaker. His age (23) is crucial in this conversation, as he’s entering the prime years of his career, making him a target for several top European clubs.

A closer look at his positional flexibility reveals that Kökçü can play both as an 8 and a 10, similar to Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai or Alexis Mac Allister. His performance in the Champions League, where he netted against Atletico Madrid, has further elevated his profile. Additionally, Kökçü was captain under Slot at Feyenoord, proving his leadership qualities. These attributes—goals, assists, minutes, leadership—make him a valuable prospect for any club seeking to bolster its midfield.

Drawing Comparisons

To make a fair comparison, we look at Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai, a player in a similar position. Both Szoboszlai and Kökçü can play as attacking midfielders or box-to-box midfielders, and both have scored in the Champions League this season. However, when diving into the stats, Kökçü boasts a pass completion rate of 87.2% with 872 total passes attempted, while Szoboszlai has a slightly better 89.9% with 380 total passes attempted. Kökçü tends to progress the ball more with 1769 progressive passing yards, compared to Szoboszlai’s 739.

Both players have made an impact in front of goal, with Kökçü posting 2 goals from a non-penalty expected goal (npxG) of 0.8, while Szoboszlai has yet to score from open play but has a higher expected goal contribution at 1.2 npxG.
In terms of versatility, Szoboszlai will be slightly ahead due to his physicality which suits Liverpool’s style, but Kökçü’s passing range and vision could make him a more suitable fit for a deeper midfield role, similar to Alexis Mac Allister. The question remains—would Kökçü offer something that Liverpool don’t already have in the form of Mac Allister or Szoboszlai? Probably not, but his addition would make the competition for spots incredibly fierce.

Likelihood and Fee

As we look at the potential transfer fee, the Correio da Manhã article doesn’t offer a concrete figure, but Transfermarkt currently values Kökçü at €35 million. The Benfica contract could complicate things, as he has four years left on his deal, which might push the fee closer to €75 million as a few are reporting. The article also notes: “O novo treinador do amigo Aktrukoglu decisivas para ganhar confiança e assumir protagonismo,” meaning that Kökçü feels confident under Lage, which might further reduce his desire to leave.

Liverpool, and more specifically Slot, are well aware of Kökçü’s abilities, having worked with him closely at Feyenoord. However, the stumbling block seems to be the fee. For Liverpool to invest such a significant amount on a player who might not be an immediate starter, it could raise some eyebrows within the club’s hierarchy. While we’ve liked him in previous transfer windows, this one seems like a harder deal to pull off unless Benfica is open to negotiating a lower fee. That’s even if there’s a reality to it. In simple terms, it’s hard to see this one.