After a rare spending spree last summer, there is a genuine buzz around the club for finishing in the top 3 Champions League table. For all the recent questions over the thin squad and youth-focused recruitment that has defined the FSG era, anticipation is building – there is a growing feeling of Europe and the FA Cup being everything the club has left to play for this season. Fans are divided on Slot and look to the best betting apps in UK as platforms to get a sense of where opinion falls, both in terms of insights and odds.
It was out of character for the club to open a war chest, especially after it had just won the league. The question will be whether it needs a new one, and if so, if they can trust Arne Slot with it. Any prolonged absence from the Champions League risks a compounding talent debt where the club must overpay for ageing stop-gaps – missing out on the competition would force the question.
The tension of a data-led recruitment philosophy
Depending on who is asked, the sustainability-first approach has served Liverpool well. Prioritising players with high developmental ceilings over established players helps keep the wage bill down and improves net spend. It does, however, rely on great coaching.
The current league standing is placing this philosophy under scrutiny. After a late defeat to Manchester City, the club finds itself in 6th place, trailing the Champions League spots in fifth just as Manchester United are picking up form. Deloitte analysis shows that Liverpool’s rise to the top of the English revenue rankings (€836m last year) was fueled mostly by their return to the Champions League – they had a 34% surge in broadcast income.
The recent acquisition of Jérémy Jacquet from Rennes and the summer arrival of Giovanni Leoni from Parma show they’re not budging on this approach. They were brought in to fortify the defence, but their injuries led Slot to question whether the club is simply unlucky. He heads into the final third of the season with a depleted squad while resisting quick fixes. Summer will be hugely important, and very telling, of where the club is at, especially Europe escapes Slot.
Is there a crisis?
One benefit of the board’s approach to recruitment is that it extends to the coaching staff. Slot may be under fire from the media, but it’s highly likely that he sees through the end of the season. It’s important because crises often occur during leadership vacuums.
The challenge will be for Slot to manage his tactics with the injury situation. For Sunderland, Szoboszlai is out, but then returns for Nottingham Forest. These fixtures will be a test of Liverpool’s resilience – it goes beyond player performance and into mentality.
The financial stakes of Champions League qualification
Champions League qualification, the FA Cup, and the Champions League are now the three targets for the rest of the season. The downside of being in all three is a substantial fixture list which will be a problem for fatigue.
Of the three, the most important financially is to qualify for next year’s Champions League, as this will secure the funds needed to fix the current squad depth issues. Of course, there are two ways to qualify: league position and winning the competition itself. And while Manchester United look a threat to take fourth, this season it is looking like fifth place will also get Champions League football.
While fifth is hardly an exciting prospect for reigning champions, its significance can’t be overstated. Broadcasting revenue is a big reason why, but so too is the appearance of stability and top-level football, which is important to attract young talent. Wolfsburg’s Konstantinos Koulierakis or Sporting CP’s Gonçalo Inácio, for example, are targets that would be easier to attract with European football.
Missing out for a second time in three seasons would put enormous pressure on the wage bill, even with a Salah exit, and may prove difficult to replace him. Clubs like Manchester United saw broadcast revenues plummet by over €50m due to their absence from the competition. For Liverpool to extract as much value as possible out of their squad and recruitment, they need to be extremely certain that they have the coach to do it.
Crunch time
As the club moves toward the final stretch, there will be some tough choices to make. Not just in the boardroom around Slot’s future and potential summer budget, but around whether to prioritise the FA Cup – a trophy, which is hugely important to the fan base – and European football. Even if the latter becomes the priority, there will be decisions around whether to rest players in the league before an away fixture in Europe; whether to bank on winning the tournament for an automatic spot next season. Sticking with the same XI may not be viable, not least because some of the old guard are now getting older. Sticking with the philosophy of young, inexperienced talent has more leeway during times of long droughts, like upon Klopp’s arrival, but as league champions, the pressure mounts.
