In June, not long after we secured our first signing Jordan Henderson, I read a very interesting article on this site by Omar Chaudhuri. It explained how “chance creation” Â and creativity can have a big effect on the number of points a team can achieve, and in the end, where they finish up come May. You can read it here.
Of the 5 teams that finished above us, 4 of them created more chances than ourselves over the course of the season. Â And of the 14 teams that finished below us, 12 created fewer chances.
It sounds pretty obvious really, but the more chances you can create, the more opportunities you will have to score. The more goals you score, the more likely you are to pick up points and win games.
So, in the summer, Liverpool quickly addressed the need for creativity, with 3 key signings. Jordan Henderson, Charlie Adam, and Stewart Downing. All 3 of them were in the top 10 of “Chances Created” in the Premier League last season. And all 3 created more chances than Nani, Modric, Van Der Vaart, and Liverpool’s top chance creator, Raul Meireles.
Now we have only seen two games so far this season, but how have the 3 of them influenced our creative options?
Firstly, Liverpool created a “chance” (including assists) every 8 minutes and 23 seconds across the whole of 2010/2011. This season to date, Â it is a chance every 7 minutes 36 seconds. Just under a minute better doesn’t sound a lot, but compare that over a full season, and we go from creating 429 chances across the year (including assists remember), to 473 chances. If you use a fair assumption that our chance conversion remains the same (13.8%), we go from scoring 59 goals, to a total of 65 goals.
Again, 6 goals doesn’t sound a lot. But, those 6 goals could have won us another 6 games that we drawn (best case scenario). However  even if it only turned two draws into wins, and two of defeats into draws, that would have given us an extra 6 points. That would have moved us up a position last season to 5th.
Now, this is only after two games. And for half of the season last year, we had Roy Hodgson, whose football, performances, and results, were not up to the standard expected (and needed) to challenge at the top end of the table. So it is easy for these figures to be misleading.
But one direct comparison can be made. Against Arsenal at The Emirates in 2010/2011, when Dalglish was manager of course, we created a chance every 20 minutes 24 seconds. This season? A chance created every 7 minutes 18 seconds.
While it was a different Arsenal side, and we had more of the ball this time around, to see us improving our minute/created chance ratio by almost 3 times, is a huge improvement.
So the statistics show that we have created more chances so far this season, and we have been more threatening in our opening first two games (and long may it continue). But what about the 3 new signings? Henderson, Adam, and Downing? Is it their influence, or influence from elsewhere?
Well, all 3 players have already created chances for their team mates in the opening games. And between them, they have created 40% of our chances this season. Â Adam is the only player who has a direct assist so far, but I am sure more will be coming from the three of them as the season goes on. I think it is fair to say that the 3 of them have helped us already.
As Omar Chaudhuri pointed out in his original article, the Henderson signing would add something to our creativity options. Adam and Downing have added even more creativity also. This is very early days for the three of them, but it is a very encouraging start.
And remember, the more we create, the more we can score, the more we can win, and the higher we will finish. Lets hope these three, and the rest of the side, can keep it up, and we can create a top side again.
Good read, cheers for the links. The criticism of Henderson so far is that he hasn’t been very enterprising; surprising given his stats last season. I suspect he’s perhaps nervous at the idea of having his every pass analysed, which probably wasn’t the case at Sunderland.
To create that many chances at the Emirates, even before the sending off, was an achievement for a team that’s still gelling.
To be fair to Henderson he took most of the set pieces for Sunderland, in fact he took all of them. Now he will not get that at Liverpool as Adam will take the majority of them. It’s going to be a different season for Henderson so we’ll have to see what Henderson can bring in open play.
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Let’s also be fair. It cannot be easy for any young player to ply their trade at any of the royalty clubs, not de Gea, certainly not Hendo. Is he however as bad as people say? It’s easier to compare with Caroll, just two years older. Experience is needed for both of them, none of whom yet knows how the Liverpool Way, which includes pass and move works. They will come good and there’s plenty of time.
Did Lucas know how LFC played prior to coming over? He’s now one of our untouchables with every game. I can’t wait to see what ideas and vision Kenny has for the Red Machine. It will work out in the end. Let’s believe and ignore our detractors. Good read.
Siempre es posible!
henderson and adam are two midfield potential creative signings … downing is a wide player who gives us width.now along the addition of bellamy,the team has gained more chances.!