A lot has been said about the misgivings of Liverpool FC in-front of goal so far this season. A lot of people are laying blame on lack of creativity (Downing & co) and also cursing the inadequacies in-front of goal (Suarez’s misses). This article will look at both of these players in comparison with their rivals as well as looking at Liverpool FC’s stats and how they compare with the teams they are rivalling or wish to be rivalling in the league.
To begin with we’ll look at Stewart Downing. The Liverpool FC left winger has failed to score a goal or register an assist in his first nine games at Liverpool FC. However I do not agree with many followers, of our @AnfieldIndex twitter account, stating that Downing hasn’t created or performed. He’s not the type of winger that will continuously beat players and then find a cross. His game is all about making enough room for him to fire a quality ball into the box and to be fair to him he’s definitely delivered on these. Off the top of my head I can recall two crosses late in the game against United where one cross found Dirk Kuyt, who forced a decent save from De Gea. He then picked out Henderson who’s header went narrowly over the bar. Both could easily have ended in goals.
This trend continued against Norwich where Downing put in, no less than, nine crosses and found a team mate with five of them, representing a 56% success rate. Looking at the averages of last year (whole season) the best crossing accuracy figures were in or around the 30% mark. Therefore those people saying he’s not creating or delivering accurate crosses is incorrect. In the same game he also created four chances. Downing is in the side to provide and he’s certainly providing chances and crosses. He’s just lacking the finishing touch from a striker to convert his chances into assists.
Taking into account Downing’s stats from the game against Norwich it really confused me further when Downing was replaced by Andy Carroll. Surely there was evidence to keep Downing on the pitch to provide Andy Carroll with crosses. In the last two games there is clear evidence that Downing is putting the ball in the right place and that Liverpool FC need a player to get onto the end of them.
Downing compared to Rivals
Let’s take a look at Downing against some of his rivals in the Premier League:
As you can see from the table above Stewart Downing is trailing behind his rivals in the league at the moment. Samir Nasri, despite playing less than half of the time that Downing has, is flying away with all the plaudits in this comparison. It’s clear to see that he’s dominating the matrix above topping everything in the creativity stakes. Nasri and Mata’s crossing accuracy this season is way above the averages of the major players from last season. Only time will tell if they can maintain this rate of successful crosses in the coming months.
Unfortunately Stewart Downing hasn’t performed as well as the two top performers Nasri and Mata. However his stats are not too far away from the stats of his rivals at Manchester United. The numbers are shown above and show that the major difference is the conversion of chances into assists which Downing or the players that he’s creating for are just not doing. This is where the real problem begins. It’s not an issue of chances being created; Liverpool FC are simply not putting away the chances that are being created well by the likes of Downing, Enrique, Adam, Kuyt and Suarez himself.
Creativity compared to the Top Two
The chart above shows that Liverpool FC are narrowly creating more chances than Manchester United and therefore proving the argument, that Liverpool are suffering because of lack of creativity, is flawed. The real issue here is the chance conversion rate. Liverpool are managing a chance conversion of 9% whilst Manchester City and Manchester United are respectably achieving 22% and 23%. This statistic is particularly interesting for Manchester United as they’ve created two less chances than Liverpool FC at the time of writing this article. It shows that they’re finishing is far superior to Liverpool’s, more than doubling Liverpool’s chance conversion rate. It also shows that City are easily creating chances and healthily converting 22% of these into goals.
So, who are these chances falling to for Liverpool FC?
Suarez compared to rivals
Luis Suarez has had many chances this season. He’s equal with Wayne Rooney on thirty-three shots so far this season however has four goals to his name in comparison to Rooney’s nine. The full table comparing Suarez to Rooney, Aguero, Dzeko & Robin Van Persie can be found below.
The table above shows that Wayne Rooney and Edin Dzeko are really dominating statistically at the moment. Whilst Rooney has the most shots and shots on target, Dzeko is averaging a goal much faster than others (every 54 minutes) and has a superb shot accuracy of 64%. Dzeko is also leading the way in terms of mins per shot (equal to Rooney) and minutes per shot on target.
Sergio Aguero is the benchmark so far for chance conversion. He’s slotted away 41% of his chances with Dzeko not far behind on 36%. Unfortunately for Suarez all of these players are on top form right now and the statistics are proving this. Luis’s chance conversion and goals tally is the main worry. A chance conversion of 12% is half that of his nearest rival Robin Van Persie, and a whopping three times less than Edin Dzeko. Suarez also trails his rivals in the Shot Accuracy statistics with a 52% accuracy. Add all of these stats to the fact that Suarez has never scored more than one goal in a game for Liverpool FC. Something has got to give soon!
Statistically, the room for improvement is there to be seen even though on the pitch Luis Suarez is a joy to watch. The way he turned Norwich City defenders and burst into the box on Saturday showed how talented he is however the skewed shot after completing the hard work also highlighted the issues that Liverpool FC are facing.
Unfair to solely pick out Suarez?
Some of you maybe thinking that it’s unfair to single out Luis Suarez’s stats so we’ll compare the whole team to their rivals in the league. The fact is that Suarez’s 12% chance conversion is higher than the Liverpool FC team’s average of 9% therefore there are other players in the side that are also missing chances which is forcing this number even lower.
The graph above shows that Liverpool are creating more chances than half of the teams around them with only Chelsea, Arsenal & Manchester City creating more. Shooting accuracy is pretty level all throughout however Spurs and Manchester United seem to have a edge with 52% accuracy. Liverpool’s shot accuracy is at 42% which is the lowest of all teams shown above (Newcastle on 44%).
The stats highlighted in red are the best statistics for the table and those highlighted in cyan are the worst statistics in the comparison. As you can see Newcastle are dominating the worst statistics however Liverpool FC are not far behind with their main issues at goals scored, chances converted and shot accuracy which go someway to proving what the majority believe; that finishing off chances is Liverpool’s main concern at the moment.
In terms of creativity Liverpool FC lie smack in the middle with three teams above them and three teams below them proving that creativity is not a problem as Enrique, Adam, Suarez, Downing and Kuyt are all in double figures for creating chances this season with Downing leading the way. The main concern is putting the ball in the back of the net. Luis Suarez seems more of a number seven for Liverpool FC and shouldn’t have to carry all of this burden. We, at Anfield Index, also believe playing Gerrard off of Suarez is not ideal as they’re both players that should play off of the striker. Maybe it’s time to try Craig Bellamy upfront? He’s started on the weekend on the left wing and scored, so maybe he’s the player to partner Luis Suarez whilst Andy Carroll continues to build his confidence?
Whatever the choices may be, Liverpool FC have a problem in-front of goal and it needs to be addressed sooner rather than later if Liverpool are to achieve their main goal; a return to the Champions League.
All of the stats used in this article are from the EPLIndex Stats Centre, where you can compare Opta statistics of clubs and players!
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Good article, but liverpool have played arsenal, tottenham, everton (away) and man utd, so i’d say they have both done quite well…
Nasri hasn’t played against a decent team yet
At this stage of the season we can only really compare the players with how well they’re doing at the moment. The comparisons against the same teams will come once we get past the half way stage. The Stats Centre at EPLIndex.com has a comparison area which will allow us to view these stats easily!
In fact, Nasri in 3 seasons at Arsenal only managed 7 assists and with City in 350 odd minutes has managed 6 assists! The fact of the matter is that he’s playing in a side with great attacking talent which is bringing his quality out even further.
Good remark on playing Bellamy up front with Suarez. Both times they played together Bellamy scored. Bellamy is a good finished and this might just be what we need.
Thank you. I really think it could do the trick. Although it was only against Brighton, I thought they linked up really well upfront. With Maxi and Kuyt in the same team Liverpool looked really dangerous. Hopefully Bellamy will get the nod upfront soon.
Excellent article mate. It really shows the exact area where we are falling down. As far as Luis Suarez being picked on – I don’t think anyone should be laying all the blame on him. As you have said above, his average conversion ratio is actually higher than the team’s season average. I think our problem lies with our second striker. If you look at all the top teams, especially the two Manchester’s – they have other strikers other than their main striker who is doing the business for them. Wellbeck & Hernandez (who has an incredible chance conversion ratio), Dzeko/Balotelli etc. When you look at our second strikers, like Carroll/Kuyt and whoever has played alongside or behind Suarez they have not covered themselves in glory. I think it’s time we gave big Andy an extended run in the team and let’s see what he can do. Can you imagine how many Fowler or Rush would have scored in this team?
As for Downing – it doesn’t matter what the lad does there are a certain section of our fans who just won’t take to him. Its more a reflection of them as fans than of Downing as a player. I think he’s suffering from Lucas syndrome. Just because he hasn’t got a flashy name and doesn’t try 50 step-overs per game he’s been vilified. It’s not fair on the lad. He’s actually trying his heart out. If his name was Downinho I wonder would he be getting the stick he’s getting now. Doubt it.
Take a bow Mr McCarthy, totally agree on the Downing issue. Too many supporters are just not supporting. So we drew to Norwich? What’s new? We have had this issue for years. It will take time to change the team and get them playing the way we want. I really believe we’ll start to find the back of the net soon.
Brilliant article, I need to bookmark this site. A few points:
1. Suarez makes a lot of these chances himself, out of almost nothing. Thinking back to the Norwich game it’s amazing that he got a shot away in a lot of those situations.
He should also be given props for blocking the norwich defender in bellamys goal, such an intelligent player!
2. Yes Nasri , Dzecko etc. are having good seasons but if I played for Man City I’d probably get the odd goal cos the whole team is playing so well. For certain statistics we can only consider it in terms of the team.
3. Would agree Downing has been pretty good since he signed, anything over 25% cross accuaracy is pretty respectable in my opinion. Problem with Sky Sports watching fans needing to have knee-jerk opinions. Which is why…
4. it makes it harder for Carrol to get a run in the team (which would be in th long term interests of the club), not scoring in a game = crisis.
And a small thing, 2D graphs are much easier to read!
Thanks for the response! Yes I know what you mean about the 2D graphs which is why I put the data table at the end of the article which shows all of the data just in case everyone wondered what the numbers were! Thanks for the feedback and I agree with most of your points apart from you playing for City! 🙂
Isn’t it true that Suarez created 15 chances so far ? According to this :
https://www.anfieldindex.com/3758/endless-frustration-liverpool-1-1-norwich-liverpool-fc-stats.html#tb
The comparison table among forwards does not show the complete picture as it ignores chances created .
I think the point of the article was to display how much the wingers are creating and how well the strikers are putting the chances away. There was no mention of any creativity aspect for the strikers.
That’s for another article and off topic for this one!
Great article and great stats, thanks.
I agree with all the comments above, I think Doning ahs been a fantastic player at times this season and his crossing ability is definately there to be ssn, I just think sometimes he tries a little too hard to get his first goal. When in front of goal he sees glory, there was 1 particular shot against Norwich where he should have squared the ball, this is understandable though. As for Suarez, I cant believe some of the comments I’ve read over the last few days “we should get rid of Suarez”???? WTF, hes class and oozes confidence and that slowly flows into the team.
My biggest problem at the moment is we seem to be showing too much “respect” to teams. We have 4 strikers and 3 other players who can play as 2nd strikers. I would love to see KK take a gamble and try Carroll up top on his own with Suarez AND Bellamy behind him, wiv gerrard, downing, adam, lucas (who is better going forward in my opinion) henderson etc etc to make up a 3 man midfield. Against teams like Norwich we should be attacking, finishing them off then cruising for the 2nd half not waiting till 65-70 minutes and thinkin oooo we better get a 2nd goal. We have a very attack minded squad from Pepe all the way up to Suarez, we have players for every position who can shoot from either 30 yards or 5 (except Carra, unless its at pepe ;))
I think we as fans need to get behind the likes of downing, carroll, henderson and certainly not get on the back of suarez. If we can show confidence in them then their confidence will grow and we will start to reap the rewards.
Totally agree with everything you’ve said there. Thank you for commenting! Appreciate the kind words!
Not a problem thanks for the stats, things like that you dont see on the pitch or you miss somethings so this helps.
Don’t you think we need a striker who can finish-off chances created by suarez, downing nd co………?
i think we need to buy a top striker dat is capable of finishing suarez’s chances……can’t wait till january.
Well, if I were kenny, I would do a smart business this january transfer window;
1: is to get a firing striker, I would go for osvaldo! He has quick feet, good and strong in the air, another version of fernando torres. If it goes through, I’ll loan carroll out to a spanish team to get better with his ball control and passes on the ground! Osvaldo is a cracking striker who can finish off and feed from downing, adam, suarez and gerrard himself! Hope kenny reads this and considers Osvaldo!! YNWA!!!!!!!
I don’t know about signing a new striker. I think we should give some of the guys in the team a chance like Bellamy etc before deciding which we could do before the end of the year. Never heard of Osvaldo to be fair mate, who does he play for?