7 Must-Knows to Win at Sports Betting

Passionate about football or any other sport? The idea of monetizing this passion might have crossed your mind, especially through sports betting. However, the dream of getting rich through betting is a long shot, with the odds often smaller than anticipated.

Sports betting can be both fun and profitable, particularly if you enjoy data. However, it requires more than just picking your favourite team for each game. With the availability of new bookmakers not with Gamstop, opportunities for strategic betting have increased. This article explores seven key concepts essential for anyone looking to play without losing money.

1. Understand Odds as Probabilities

The more likely an outcome, the less the bookies will pay you, and vice versa. This relation is not just logical but numerical. Given an odd, you can compute a probability and vice versa.

Using decimal odds (common in Italy), the probability implied by an odd can be calculated by dividing 100 by the decimal odd. For example, if Manchester United’s away win against Aston Villa is given at 3.10, the implied probability is approximately 32.26%.

Bookmakers estimate probabilities before computing odds, and they are typically very accurate. If an odd seems too good to be true, it likely is due to a miscalculation in your probability estimation.

2. It’s a Long-Run Game

Betting is a game of probabilities, and it makes sense to talk about probability only with many tries. Even with a high probability of success (99% or odds of 1.01), a single attempt can fail. True wins are achieved over the long run, a concept well understood by bookmakers and should be by you too.

3. Know Your Break-Even Percentage

Building on the concept of probabilities, if you play an outcome with odds of 3.10, you need to win 32.26% of the time to break even. This is shown by the expected value formula. Suppose you place this bet 100 times, wagering 1 penny each time. Winning 32.26% of the time at odds of 3.1, you’ll end up with the same amount you started with, 100 pennies, minus any rounding errors.

The break-even percentage is the win rate needed for a bet to yield zero profit, ensuring you neither lose nor gain money.

4. Accept That You’ll Probably Lose

Bookmakers have a mathematical edge. For example, the implied probabilities for Villa-United might be:

• Villa win: 46.51%
• Draw: 26.67%
• United win: 32.26%

These add up to 105.08%, exceeding 100% because bookmakers add a hold percentage to ensure profit. To find the real implied probabilities, divide each by their sum (105.08%):

• Villa win: 43.92%
• Draw: 25.38%
• United win: 30.7%

The break-even percentage for a “United wins” bet is 32.26%, but you’re expected to win only 30.7% of the time, leading to a loss over the long run. For example, betting £100 on United is expected to yield a loss of £5 if the bookmaker’s estimates are accurate.

5. Understand the Rules of the Game

Winning requires estimating probabilities better than the bookmaker and only betting when your expected value exceeds 1. This is simple to understand but difficult to achieve. Picking favourites consistently leads to losses, as bookmakers excel at identifying favourites.

6. Check Odds

To find profitable bets, use odds-checking tools. These allow you to compare odds offered by various bookmakers. Always aim for the best odds available, though this may require accounts with multiple bookies. For beginners, start by comparing the given odds to the market average.

A recommended tool is oddschecker.com, but any reliable odds comparison tool will work.

7. Track Your Results

Tracking your bets is crucial to understanding your performance. Use a simple Google Sheet or Excel file to record each bet. This helps identify if you’re winning in the long run or making mistakes.

Example Betting Record (in Italian)

Keeping a detailed record allows for analysis of your betting strategy and adjustments to improve your long-term outcomes.

FAQ

What are the main concepts to understand in sports betting?

The main concepts in sports betting include understanding odds as probabilities, recognising that it’s a long-run game, knowing your break-even percentage, accepting the bookmaker’s advantage, understanding the rules of the game, checking odds, and tracking your results.

How do I calculate the probability implied by an odd?

To calculate the probability implied by a decimal odd, divide 100 by the decimal odd. For example, if the odd is 3.10, the implied probability is approximately 32.26%.

What is the bookmaker’s hold and how does it affect my bets?

The bookmaker’s hold is the percentage added to probabilities to ensure their profit. It causes the sum of implied probabilities to exceed 100%. This reduces your expected profit, making it harder to win in the long run.

How can I find the best odds for my bets?

Use odds-checking tools to compare the odds offered by various bookmakers. Always aim to get the best available odds for a bet. New bookmakers not with Gamstop can provide additional options for finding favourable odds.

Why is tracking my bets important?

Tracking your bets is crucial for understanding your performance over time. It helps you identify whether you’re winning in the long run or making mistakes that need correction.

Can I consistently win at sports betting by picking my favourite teams?

No, consistently picking favourite teams often leads to losses because bookmakers are very good at identifying favourites. Winning requires better probability estimation than the bookmakers and playing only when your expected value exceeds 1.