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Understanding Dr. Ian Graham’s Influence on Liverpool FC

Liverpool FC’s success over recent years has been widely attributed to their tactical brilliance, excellent recruitment, and of course, data-driven decision-making. One of the key figures behind the scenes has been Dr. Ian Graham, the former Director of Research at Liverpool FC. In a recent podcast on The Redmen TV, Chris Pajak sat down with Dr. Graham to delve into his journey, the role of data in football, and how it shaped Liverpool’s modern era. This article reflects on that conversation and offers insights for football enthusiasts and data aficionados alike.

Dr. Ian Graham’s Path to Liverpool

Dr. Ian Graham’s journey into football was unconventional, to say the least. Born in South Wales, he initially pursued a career in physics, obtaining a Ph.D. from Cambridge. However, it was a chance encounter with an advert for a football statistics job that set him on a different trajectory. “I didn’t realise such a thing existed,” Graham mentioned during the podcast, recalling how he joined a small startup called Decision Technology. This venture eventually led him to work for Tottenham Hotspur and later Liverpool FC under the leadership of Michael Edwards and Damien Comolli.

Graham’s work at Liverpool wasn’t just about crunching numbers; it was about translating data into actionable insights that could improve player performance and recruitment. “We weren’t geniuses,” Graham modestly stated. “We worked hard and did good work.” His ability to simplify complex data models and make them accessible to football fans is evident in his recent book, How to Win the Premier League.

The Impact of Data on Liverpool’s Success

One of the most intriguing aspects of Graham’s work at Liverpool was the development of models that could predict player performance. This approach went beyond just looking at past performances; it focused on estimating future outputs. “The whole concept of data analysis in football is that past performance is a predictor of future results,” Graham explained. This principle was particularly crucial in the recruitment of players like Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino, who formed one of the most feared attacking trios in football.

Graham highlighted the importance of signing younger players who could improve over time. “When you buy a 21-year-old, you’re not just buying his performance today; you’re buying the promise that he’ll improve in the future,” he noted. This forward-thinking approach helped Liverpool avoid the common pitfall of overpaying for older players whose performances are likely to decline.

Photo: IMAGO

The Evolution of Expected Goals (xG)

The podcast also touched on the concept of expected goals (xG), a metric that has become ubiquitous in football analysis. Graham recalled how his early models were based on simple factors like shot location, with more complex data points being added over time. “The overriding factor in xG is distance,” he said, emphasising that closer shots generally have a higher chance of resulting in goals.

Graham’s work didn’t stop at pre-shot models; he also developed post-shot models to evaluate goalkeepers. “Post-shot xG takes the trajectory into account,” he explained. This model allows analysts to assess not just whether a shot is on target but also how difficult it is for the goalkeeper to save.

Possession Value Models: Game Changer For Liverpool

Another significant contribution from Graham’s department was the development of possession value models. Initially developed during his time at Spurs, this model was refined at Liverpool to assess the impact of every action on the pitch in terms of increasing or decreasing the likelihood of scoring. “All we care about is measuring what the chance of scoring a goal is in this situation,” Graham explained. This model became a cornerstone of Liverpool’s data-driven approach to recruitment and match preparation.

Photo: IMAGO

Graham’s work with tracking data further enhanced these models, allowing for more accurate assessments of player performance. This was particularly important for players like Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose ability to deliver pinpoint passes from deep positions was a key factor in Liverpool’s attacking play. “He’s continually completing passes that the model says should not be completed,” Graham noted with a smile, acknowledging Trent’s exceptional passing skills.

Dr. Ian Graham’s influence on Liverpool FC cannot be overstated. His innovative use of data has not only contributed to the club’s success but also changed how football clubs approach performance analysis and recruitment. As Liverpool fans look to the future, Graham’s legacy will undoubtedly remain a significant part of the club’s modern history. For those interested in diving deeper into his methods and insights, How to Win the Premier League is a must-read.

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