Liverpool’s Contract Impasse with Salah
‘No matter what happens, I will never forget what scoring at Anfield feels like,’ Salah concluded his post on X on Sunday afternoon.
It was an ominous sentence. One that sheds light on the reality of his situation at Liverpool right now.
With Salah close to approaching the last six months of his deal, there has been little progress made with the club over an extension.
At this moment in time, there is a real possibility the 2024/25 season could be the Egyptian’s last and that he would be moving on as a free agent next summer – free to go wherever he wishes.
But this would be a colossal mistake by Liverpool. One that could parallel FSG’s decision to trade Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox back in 2019 – when the organisation refused to give him the contract extension Betts wanted.
Last week Betts celebrated his second World Series since leaving the Red Sox with the LA Dodgers.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox haven’t been able to get back to the same level ever since.
That same future could become Liverpool’s reality as well if Salah is allowed to move onto pastures new.
Salah Keeps Getting Better
This season Salah has the joint most goal contributions in the Premier League.
In just 10 matches, he has already made 12 goal contributions and has 16 in 15 matches in all competitions so far.
These are not unusual numbers for Salah. This is simply the standard he has set since arriving at Liverpool.
But what’s clear is that these numbers are not dwindling. His output continues to be as consistent as ever despite now being 32 years old.
If anything his underlying numbers would suggest in some key aspects of the game he is getting even better.
It’s a small sample size so far this season, but when we are looking at Salah’s last six seasons as per FBref, he is currently averaging the second best goal return per 90 with 0.69 – only topped by his 2021/22 campaign.
Meanwhile, for goals and assists – he is currently on course to have his best season in six years averaging 1.26 per 90.
That doesn’t paint a picture of a player on the decline or someone who is slowing down in terms of production.
It paints a picture of a player still going strong and playing at the top of his game.
When it comes to his creativity, Salah continues to get better. If we are looking at his shot-creating-actions over the course of the last six seasons, Salah only had a better average per 90 last season.
But it’s not just these decisive moments in which Salah’s game has improved. He’s not merely an output merchant.
This season in a short sample size he is showing development in his overall game.
Over the course of the last few seasons, one of the main source of criticism aimed at Salah has been his inefficiency when it came to one vs one situations.
This season, few can complain about his effectiveness. He averages close to 2 successful take-ons per 90 minutes, which is the highest average he has produced over the course of the last six seasons.
As you can see, he’s also making more carries into the penalty area (3.56 per 90) than during his last few seasons under Jurgen Klopp.
Slot’s football has seemed to make him a more dynamic threat and has got him playing some of his best football in years.
On top of that, Slot is even getting more out of Salah defensively. Salah is winning more tackles and making more tackles and interceptions combined per 90 minutes than in his last six seasons.
It’s important to note that this is a short sample size but if Salah can maintain similar numbers throughout the rest of the season (and there’s no suggestion he can’t) then letting him go next summer would be an utterly baffling decision by the club.
Salah is still one of the best players in the world – someone who can continue at this level for at least the next two years – tying him down to a new contract should be the club’s top priority.
No One Can Replace Him
But if that doesn’t motivate Liverpool looking at potential alternative solutions to replace Salah should.
The reality is that there are very few players in world football who can replace him.
The ones that could are out of Liverpool’s reach.
I looked at left-footed right-wingers in the world’s top senior leagues who have played at least 2000 minutes and who have produced a similar output when it comes to xG and xA per 90 as Salah on Wyscout.
The players who stand out on that list are Cole Palmer, Lionel Messi and Raphinha but let’s face it none of them are realistic options for Liverpool.
The rest have all produced those numbers at relatively weaker leagues and therefore not reliable options.
By letting Salah go on a free, Liverpool will not even get compensation for him. It’s moot how much of a budget there will be to replace him.
But even if the club had infinite funds, the numbers would suggest Liverpool would not be able to find an adequate replacement for their Egyptian King.
Which is why keeping him at Anfield is Richard Hughes’ most imperative job.
