Liverpool and Florian Wirtz: why turning it around starts with better chances

Liverpool paid for a player who could decide matches. With Florian Wirtz, the question is how often glimpses of that ability can become something more substantial.

Debate following the win over Bournemouth has sharpened the scrutiny. A substantial transfer fee brings substantial expectations, and patience becomes harder to sustain when an attacking midfielder is struggling to influence games.

Yet disappointment and dismissal are different judgements. In his video analysis following that match, David Lynch makes a case for demanding more from Wirtz while recognising evidence that improvement remains possible.

For Liverpool, turning it around requires more than a reassuring performance. It means translating his technical quality into better opportunities, more goals and a consistent influence on the attack.

Liverpool expectations leave little room for promise alone

The £116 million figure cited by Lynch frames almost every discussion. At that price, supporters understandably expect someone capable of shaping the biggest games.

Lynch captures the dilemma directly: “For 116 million, you’re not paying for promise. You’re paying for delivering straight away.”

That does not make every poor performance proof of a failed signing. It does, however, explain why isolated moments of quality cannot settle the argument.

Wirtz must be assessed against the responsibility he carries. Liverpool need a creator who can recognise an opening quickly and a goalscorer who makes his positioning count.

His age offers context. It cannot indefinitely substitute for delivery.

Shooting numbers offer reasons for Liverpool optimism

The shooting figures in Lynch’s analysis suggest that Wirtz has a foundation from which to improve.

At the point covered by the transcript, his 12 Premier League shots had produced no goals from 0.99 expected goals. That indicates a modest shortfall against the chances available, rather than a succession of glaring misses.

More revealing is the quality of those attempts. His average of 0.08 expected goals per shot suggests he could be more selective, or find positions from which scoring is likelier.

There is evidence that he can.

Lynch cites a previous league return of five goals from 6.89 expected goals across 51 shots. The average chance quality was approximately 0.14 expected goals per attempt, considerably stronger than the more recent sample.

Those numbers matter because they shift the discussion towards something practical. Wirtz does not need every ambitious effort to find the corner. He needs more opportunities that give him a realistic chance of scoring.

As Lynch puts it: “There’s a base to build on around his shooting.”

Chance creation must become more dangerous

Creativity presents a more demanding problem.

Lynch’s analysis credits Wirtz with 60 chances created in the previous Premier League campaign, placing him eighth. Taken alone, that sounds like the output of a player already doing much of what Liverpool require.

The accompanying figures complicate that picture. Lynch places him 81st for big chances created and 29th for expected assists per 90 minutes.

A pass that leads to a speculative effort counts as chance creation. So does one that releases a forward into a clear scoring position. Their value is plainly different.

Liverpool need Wirtz to produce more of the second kind.

That requires speed of thought as much as precision: spotting movement before a defender adjusts, releasing the ball before a gap closes and choosing when to attempt the decisive pass.

His creative reputation makes that a reasonable expectation. Establishing it consistently in Liverpool’s attack remains the challenge.

Turning it around requires progress on the pitch

The strongest argument for patience is that Wirtz has already demonstrated qualities that can support improvement.

The strongest argument for scrutiny is that Liverpool need those qualities to affect results more regularly.

Lynch keeps both ideas in view: “There are signs of promise.” His assessment also makes clear that the player must now convert them into something tangible.

Turning it around need not mean an immediate run of spectacular performances. Better shooting positions, more incisive passes and fewer games on the margins would represent meaningful progress.

Liverpool have reasons to believe Wirtz can improve. The next step is for his football to make that belief easier to sustain.